The Fmax values will be calculated based on temperature forecasts with a higher spatial and temporal resolution than today. This means that the transmission limits will better reflect actual temperature conditions. The net impact in capacity limits is expected to be moderate with changes in capacity up to +20%, and we expect higher fluctuations throughout the day with decreased capacity at midday and increased capacity at night relative to todays Fmax values. Figure 1 below illustrates the net mean capacity change for Statnett’s 50 most constraining CNEs over the last 12 months.
Figure 1: Expected mean change in capacity with the updated model relative to the realised Fmax values for Statnett’s 50 most constraining CNEs over the last 12 months.
The FRM value update has been done in accordance with the proposed amended Capacity Calculation Methodology. For the market, the FRM-update are expected to result in some moderate adjustments to available capacity compared to the current solution. In Figure 2 below we illustrate the FRM changes of some of Statnetts most constraining CNECs since 01/11/2025. In addition, the attached work sheet contains the updates in FRM values in MW for all Statnetts network elements. One of the CNECs that is affected is included in the “name” column, and the FRM will apply to all CNECs that have identical Contingencies and Critical network elements as that CNEC.
Figure 2: the relative FRM changes of some of Statnetts most constraining CNECs since 1/1/2025.
Statnett will monitor the implementation closely and keep the market informed of any relevant updates.